Ukraine - Superthread

[suffolkowner]

The east and the south are two completely different battlefields. In the south, it is a lot of open farm land, this is armoured warfare counter, something ukraine doesn't have a lot of

Has Ukraine lost a lot of armour so far in the war? I haven't seen good info on this. In the 3 years prior to the invasion they refurbished over 500 tanks alone so it doesn't seem like something that should be a limiting factor to me

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Thats been my opinion too but I think Putin has trapped himself here and has no easy out. The key for Ukraine will be to retake Kherson and Zaporizhia. From what I have read the main Ukrainian push will start closer to August? Why the delay? The need to bring reserves up to speed? Integrate new equipment?

Favourable weather?

 

[brihard]

Has Ukraine lost a lot of armour so far in the war? I haven't seen good info on this. In the 3 years prior to the invasion they refurbished over 500 tanks alone so it doesn't seem like something that should be a limiting factor to me

I cannot imagine that Ukraine hasn’t lost a lot of armour. It’s been an intense fight. What we don’t have a measure of is ratios compared to Russia, as well as the ability to replenish and replace. Ukraine has gotten some significant foreign contributions, albeit, today, still ex-Soviet junk no better than the funeral pyres Russia is driving into battle. Ukraine is probably using its armour better though.

I’d be more interested in how well Ukraine is doing in terms of retaining experienced AFV crews.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Has Ukraine lost a lot of armour so far in the war? I haven't seen good info on this. In the 3 years prior to the invasion they refurbished over 500 tanks alone so it doesn't seem like something that should be a limiting factor to me

One data point (with HUGE grain of salt & usual caveats) to start triangulating from, from today's RUS MoD info-machine brief (safe PDF attached)

... In total, 172 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 952 unmanned aerial vehicles, 314 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,168 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 396 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,571 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,039 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

Rough estimate, based on 20 April's RUS MoD info-machine figures (also attached) ....

... In total, 140 aircraft and 106 helicopters, 498 unmanned aerial vehicles, 254 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,397 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 261 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,038 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,244 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

... is that over the past 31 days, Team USSR 2.0 claims to have been taking out just under 25 (24.9) Team Zelensky tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.

If you want to start the alleged RUS counter at zero as of 24 Feb, Team USSR 2.0's claiming a campaign average of more than 36 (36.8) tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.

 

[GR66]

One data point (with HUGE grain of salt & usual caveats) to start triangulating from, from today's RUS MoD info-machine brief (safe PDF attached)

Rough estimate, based on 20 April's RUS MoD info-machine figures (also attached) ....

... is that over the past 31 days, Team USSR 2.0 claims to have been taking out just under 25 (24.9) Team Zelensky tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.

If you want to start the alleged RUS counter at zero as of 24 Feb, Team USSR 2.0's claiming a campaign average of more than 36 (36.8) tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.

Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:

Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​

 

[KevinB]

Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:

Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​

Confirmed losses are always significantly lower than actual losses in this conflict.

The other issue I have with any of the OS reports for damaged, abandoned and captured tanks is the lack of background.
Abandoned is an interesting term, and without context is fairly meaningless. Where they abandoned by desertion, injured crew, immobilized due to damage, or lack of supplies (POL, ammunition, or food for the crew).
Similarly captured tanks don’t tel much of a tale, where they abandoned tanks (for any reason above), or where they captured in combat…

 

[The Bread Guy]

Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:

Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​

So, like casualty figures, that gives us a bracketing range, so to speak - thanks!

To compare Oryx apples to RUS info-machine apples (at least roughly), Oryx reports 249 tanks & AFVs (151 destroyed, 3 (tks) damaged, 12 abandoned, 134 captured).

 

[Kirkhill]

Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:

Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​

From the same source - Russian losses​

Tanks (684, of which destroyed: 368, damaged: 21, abandoned: 52, captured: 241)​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527646104552189964

I think the relevant info, given comparable methodology, is the ratio between the two sides.

5 Russian tanks destroyed for every 1 Ukrainian tank
Dug in Ukrainians on the defence vs Russians on the attack in the open.

3 Russian tanks abandoned or captured for every 1 Ukrainian tank.



Perhaps more interesting

93 Ukrainian tanks captured or abandoned for every 73 destroyed - 1.3 : 1
293 Russian tanks captured or abandoned for every 368 destroyed - 0.8 : 1

It appears that the Ukrainians have even less faith in their tanks than their Russian opponents.

 

[Skysix]

I'd be more interested in how well Ukraine is doing in terms of retaining experienced AFV crews.

We should be looking for dual NATO citizen/Ukranian tankers to be seconded to the UA. Would be excellent instructors back home (if they survive). Ditto Gunners and Engineers etc.

The current and near future high intensity battles in Ukraine are far closer to the way war will be fought in the future than WW2 or G1. Reviewing AAR from the comfort of the various staff colleges simply does not have the same veritas.

 

[MilEME09]

Anyone able to confirm this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527712723374596099

 

[FJAG]

Anyone able to confirm this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527712723374596099

The Washington Post suggests it as a possibility:

The bill, passed on an 86-to-11 vote Thursday, provides a combined $20 billion in military aid that is expected to finance the transfer of advanced weapons systems, such as Patriot antiaircraft missiles and long-range artillery. Also included in the bill is more than $8 billion in general economic support for Ukraine, nearly $5 billion in global food aid to address potential food shortages sparked by the collapse of the Ukrainian agricultural economy, and more than $1 billion in combined support for refugees.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/19/ukraine-aid-senate/

 

[Good2Golf]

Anyone able to confirm this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527712723374596099

That’ll sure leave a mark on the VKS…

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Air superiority would be extremely helpful when the UA starts the mop up of Kherson and Mariupol.

 

[Prairie canuck]

That’ll sure leave a mark on the VKS…

I think the Russians will be trophy hunting for those to the point of distraction. Destroying a couple would be good for their propaganda machine.

 

[MilEME09]

I think the Russians will be trophy hunting for those to the point of distraction. Destroying a couple would be good for their propaganda machine.

Given their range, they would be taking a big risk to find and engage

 

[Prairie canuck]

Given their range, they would be taking a big risk to find and engage

Their leadership certainly don't take risks. It's not like they tried a river crossing a 3rd time after failing at the same place twice before.. "don't worry Vlad we can spin this "

 

[The Bread Guy]

"Official" word from RUS MoD info-machine on Azovstal as of last night (safe PDF of English statement attached)

The underground facilities of the enterprise, where the militants had been hiding, have come under full control of the Russian Armed Forces. Since May 16, a total of 2,439 Azov Nazis and AFU servicemen blocked inside the plant have laid down their arms and surrendered during the operation. Today, the last group of 531 militants surrendered. The so-called ‘commander’ of the Azov Nazis, due to the hatred of Mariupol residents and the desire of the townspeople to massacre him for his numerous atrocities, was removed from the territory of the plant in a special armoured vehicle ...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527888361763000321

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527617544265293824

 

[The Bread Guy]

Russian approach to cyberwarfare: denial of service attack by going in physically and pulling out wires

The Emergence of Physically Mediated Cyberattacks?

Physical violence against personnel in lawless environments as an element of cyberattack is another dimension of cyber conflict, and its importance has been neglected for way too long.

www.lawfareblog.com

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Russian approach to cyberwarfare: denial of service attack by going in physically and pulling out wires

The Emergence of Physically Mediated Cyberattacks?

Physical violence against personnel in lawless environments as an element of cyberattack is another dimension of cyber conflict, and its importance has been neglected for way too long.

www.lawfareblog.com

The Israeli's have been conducting physical attacks in response to cyber warfare for a few years now.

They've turned a bunch of Hezbollah and Hamas hackers in to vaporware with drone strikes as a retaliation for cyber attacks.

 

[Zipperhead99]

The Norwegian CDS thinks it will take Russia 5-10 years to recover from their disastrous invasion...that is presuming Putin finally realizes the futility of it all and gives up

Russia’s military is now a ‘wounded bear.’ Can it revive itself? - Breaking Defense

The Norwegian chief of defense, along with experts, assess Russia's poor performance, how long the conflict will likely last, and what Russia would have to do to rebuild its early losses.

breakingdefense.com