Ukraine - Superthread

[daftandbarmy]

Hey, so why was your tank racing around all alone like that? What happened to its friends? The rest of its BTG? Were they dumb, lost, or just the last ones left?

Invading another country, watching your friends die, and charging your tank down canalizing ground through fire doesn’t make you a hero, it just make you the idiots who took the longest to die.

Probably the Squadron's buddy fucker

 

[Good2Golf]

I cant make this up if i tried....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527454308115042305

To be fair, you can’t have an ANFO explosion without the FO part…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Heh, heh, heh ...

This Hacktivist Site Lets You Prank Call Russian Officials

To protest the war in Ukraine, WasteRussianTime.today auto-dials Russian government officials, connects them to each other, and lets you listen in to their confusion.

www.wired.com

The site (call feature) seems to be down right now, but it says the over 5,000 calls have been made.

 

[Good2Golf]

Probably the Squadron's buddy fucker

 

[daftandbarmy]

To be fair, you can’t have an ANFO explosion without the FO part…View attachment 70860

The Lebanese seemed to have figured out how to cook it off though:

What Is Ammonium Nitrate, the Chemical That Exploded in Beirut?​

On August 4, 2020, the Lebanese capital Beirut experienced a massive explosion caused by more than 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate improperly stored near the city’s cargo port. It was one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history, which killed 218 people, injured 7,000 and displaced over 300,000. This story from August 5, 2020 is being republished on the one year anniversary of the disaster.

The Lebanese capital Beirut was rocked on Tuesday evening local time by an explosion that has killed at least 78 people and injured thousands more.

The country’s prime minister Hassan Diab said the blast was caused by around 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored near the city’s cargo port. Video footage appears to show a fire burning nearby before the blast.

What Is Ammonium Nitrate, the Chemical That Exploded in Beirut?

The blast injured thousands and killed at least 78 people

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[Good2Golf]

But there was a reducer (combustible) present as well, so that the rapid release of oxygen had something to detonate. The AN was hanging around for 6+ years, so who the heck knows what went on.

 

[Maxman1]

Heh, heh, heh ...

This Hacktivist Site Lets You Prank Call Russian Officials

To protest the war in Ukraine, WasteRussianTime.today auto-dials Russian government officials, connects them to each other, and lets you listen in to their confusion.

www.wired.com

Maybe they have pipe tobacco.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I cant make this up if i tried....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527454308115042305

You think they'd have known the risks, given prominent coverage of the other side using it via the RUS info-machine ....

One man's chemical weapon is another's sandbag fill, I guess ....

 

[Good2Golf]

A soldier of Ukraine spoke about the catastrophic state of affairs at the front and the consequences of Russian artillery strikes and the Grad MLRS in Ukraine. The combat work of the MLRS "Grad" of Russia in Ukraine and the story of a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine further in the video. A short translation of the Ukrainian soldier's speech about the situation at the front. “The strikes of Russian artillery and the Grad MLRS go exactly where they need to, everything is in smoke, everything is constantly under fire, everything is destroyed, the trenches are broken, there is constant shelling, there is no support for Ukrainian artillery yet, they have been shelling for three days already, there is no reaction from Ukrainian artillery everything is falling apart"

@Soldier35 I think the UAF is more concerned with airborne RF T-90 turrets. There are so many of them flying through the air, someone could get hurt quite badly if one landed on them.

 

[The Bread Guy]

It appears to be official (AFP via RUS independent media): "Ukraine Orders End to Defense of Mariupol"...

... Russia released a video appearing to show exhausted Ukrainian soldiers trudging out of the sprawling steel plant, after weeks during which the besieged defenders and civilians huddled in tunnels, enduring shortages of food, water and medicine.

"The higher military command has given the order to save the lives of the soldiers of our garrison and to stop defending the city," Azov battalion commander Denys Prokopenko said in a video on Telegram.

He said efforts continued to remove killed fighters from the plant.

"I now hope that soon, the families and all of Ukraine will be able to bury their fighters with honors," he said.

Ukraine is hoping to exchange the surrendering Azovstal soldiers for Russian prisoners. But in Donetsk, the pro-Kremlin authorities are in turn threatening to put some of them on trial ...

 

[suffolkowner]

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast on May 19. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis arrived to

www.understandingwar.org

At this point for all the doom and gloom with respect to Russian efforts they can realistically lay claim to

1. getting rid of the Nazi-Azov Battalion
2. establishing a land corridor to Crimea
3. doing extensive damage to Ukraines MIC

What more can they hope to accomplish and hold onto? Is this the peak of their war gains? Can they sustain this operational tempo with respect to manpower and equipment?

I don't think they can as generally the initial conquering effort is the easy part of the war campaign and even well supplied and relatively well led efforts have been crippled by the cost of ongoing insurgency. Already the Russians have lost at a minimum of 25% of their tank force and maybe as much as 50% with their BTG's reduced by half since their peak suggesting that casualties are equally as high. Replacement equipment and personel are unlikely to be of equivalent quality.

I'm curious what is the way out for Russia and Ukraine

 

[daftandbarmy]

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast on May 19. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis arrived to

www.understandingwar.org

At this point for all the doom and gloom with respect to Russian efforts they can realistically lay claim to

1. getting rid of the Nazi-Azov Battalion
2. establishing a land corridor to Crimea
3. doing extensive damage to Ukraines MIC

What more can they hope to accomplish and hold onto? Is this the peak of their war gains? Can they sustain this operational tempo with respect to manpower and equipment?

I don't think they can as generally the initial conquering effort is the easy part of the war campaign and even well supplied and relatively well led efforts have been crippled by the cost of ongoing insurgency. Already the Russians have lost at a minimum of 25% of their tank force and maybe as much as 50% with their BTG's reduced by half since their peak suggesting that casualties are equally as high. Replacement equipment and personel are unlikely to be of equivalent quality.

I'm curious what is the way out for Russia and Ukraine

Keep saying 'I told you so' seems like a good option

 

[TheProfessional]

A Russian Defence analyst laying out his concerns will being careful not to break the law.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526293852704890882

You can tell that man knows this war is a crock of shit and wants to warn the people of Russia but has to tread very carefully because if he says the wrong thing on air he could end up imprisoned. My hat goes off to him.

 

[suffolkowner]

Keep saying 'I told you so' seems like a good option

View attachment 70863

https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/05/20/the-total-combat-losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-to-20-05/

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 20.05 were approximately:

personnel ‒ about 28700 (+200) persons were liquidated,

tanks ‒ 1263 (+9),

APV ‒ 3090 (+27),

artillery systems – 596 (+1),

MLRS ‒ 200 (+1),

Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 93 (+0),

aircraft – 204 (+1),

helicopters – 168 (+1),

UAV operational-tactical level ‒ 460 (+5),

cruise missiles ‒ 103 (+0),

warships / boats ‒ 13 (+0),

vehicles and fuel tanks ‒ 2162 (+5),

special equipment ‒ 43 (+0).

Yeah I don't know who thought it was a good idea in the first place. I don't think there would be any appetite for any NATO led mission to suffer almost 10,000 casualties a month even if you half that its insane to me

 

[rmc_wannabe]

At this point for all the doom and gloom with respect to Russian efforts they can realistically lay claim to

1. getting rid of the Nazi-Azov Battalion - They said the same thing about the Canadian Airborne Regiment. It just was given a different name, new colour beret, and started screening the hell out of folks so that any baggage from the old unit was no longer an issue.
2. establishing a land corridor to Crimea - For now. Wait for the counter offensive once the northern flank is secured. ...
3. doing extensive damage to Ukraines MIC - Not a problem when you have the Lend Lease program cranking out capabilities faster than before this war started.

What more can they hope to accomplish and hold onto? Is this the peak of their war gains? Can they sustain this operational tempo with respect to manpower and equipment?

They can't, and are hoping Ukraine wants peace more than they want retribution. They're at the point now where they are spreading their forces too thin and will end up getting flattened if they don't find a way to bring Ukraine to the bargaining table. I think their position though is getting weaker and weaker.

I don't think they can as generally the initial conquering effort is the easy part of the war campaign and even well supplied and relatively well led efforts have been crippled by the cost of ongoing insurgency. Already the Russians have lost at a minimum of 25% of their tank force and maybe as much as 50% with their BTG's reduced by half since their peak suggesting that casualties are equally as high. Replacement equipment and personel are unlikely to be of equivalent quality.

I'm curious what is the way out for Russia and Ukraine

Right now, the only way out for Russia is on Ukraine's good graces, and that most likely will be at the request and influence of weak European powers that are feeling the pinch due to energy shortages. Ukraine should by all accounts sweep what's left of the Russian BTGs in the next few months and push eastward. I don't see any possibility for the Russians to maintain a presence, let alone gain more ground in any of the occupied territories in the next 6 months. This war has crippled them.

 

[suffolkowner]

They can't, and are hoping Ukraine wants peace more than they want retribution. They're at the point now where they are spreading their forces too thin and will end up getting flattened if they don't find a way to bring Ukraine to the bargaining table. I think their position though is getting weaker and weaker.


Right now, the only way out for Russia is on Ukraine's good graces, and that most likely will be at the request and influence of weak European powers that are feeling the pinch due to energy shortages. Ukraine should by all accounts sweep what's left of the Russian BTGs in the next few months and push eastward. I don't see any possibility for the Russians to maintain a presence, let alone gain more ground in any of the occupied territories in the next 6 months. This war has crippled them.

Thats been my opinion too but I think Putin has trapped himself here and has no easy out. The key for Ukraine will be to retake Kherson and Zaporizhia. From what I have read the main Ukrainian push will start closer to August? Why the delay? The need to bring reserves up to speed? Integrate new equipment?

 

[MilEME09]

Thats been my opinion too but I think Putin has trapped himself here and has no easy out. The key for Ukraine will be to retake Kherson and Zaporizhia. From what I have read the main Ukrainian push will start closer to August? Why the delay? The need to bring reserves up to speed? Integrate new equipment?

troops take time to train properly. Rumor is ukraine may have a few new brigades ready for action in june, so right now while they are doing limited counter attacks, they need to hold the line for now. The east and the south are two completely different battlefields. In the south, it is a lot of open farm land, this is armoured warfare counter, something ukraine doesn't have a lot of, so they are quickly pushing western kit into service and training atleast 1 new brigade has been publicly acknowledged. In the east, it is a lot of hills, mountains, rivers and thick forests, ideal infantry territory, which is great for Ukraine.

What, Ukraine needs now to turn this fully in their favour is air power, domination of the air, or atleast local superiority where they want it, would go a long way to defeating Russian forces.

 

[Kirkhill]

There was some commentary suggesting that the US was not supplying all the M777 capabilities it could. This was largely due to a couple of photos of M777s in action missing some of their EIS. This was picked up by the Pro-Russian press. (or perhaps the anti-US press).

The missing kit is highlighted here. The Digital Fire Control System has been supplied by the US and is in use by the Ukrainians.

[Confirmed] UA is using the M777 howitzer digital fire-control system to provide navigation, pointing and self-location, allowing it to be put into action quickly / Photo credit: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/utw66b

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527548593455910914

 

[YZT580]

would it be possible to provide escort and minesweeping for civilian bulk carriers using the NATO Black Sea fleet without actually entering the war. Said fleet to be able to fire to protect those escorted and defend themselves but in all other instances not step between Ukraine and Russia (sorta a no fly zone in the sea)