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The Ferguson effect debunked

daftandbarmy

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The Ferguson effect debunked: The theory not only lacks evidence, it makes no sense

The ups and downs of violent crime can't be explained by protesters cowing police


In Chicago, 69 people were reported shot, six fatally, over the long weekend. In Baltimore, bullets fired from a passing car hit five people at a cookout on Monday. One of the victims, a 20-year-old man hit in the arm, was later arrested after allegedly returning to the scene with a loaded .38 in his waistband.


In many American cities with large, segregated populations of poor black people, murders have been on the rise. So too has been the use of urban carnage, often to conservative political ends, by those hawking the so-called “Ferguson effect,” which posits that protests over police shootings cause officers to pull back from enforcement and thus drive more gunfire.

“Ultimately, denial of the Ferguson effect is driven by a refusal to acknowledge the connection between proactive policing and public safety,”  the Manhattan Institute scholar who began popularizing the idea last May, recently wrote in The Wall Street Journal. “Until the urban family is reconstituted, law-abiding residents of high-crime neighborhoods will need the police to maintain public order in the midst of profound social breakdown.”

http://www.salon.com/2016/06/03/the_ferguson_effect_debunked_the_theory_not_only_lacks_evidence_it_makes_no_sense/


 

mariomike

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daftandbarmy said:
“Ultimately, denial of the Ferguson effect is driven by a refusal to acknowledge the connection between proactive policing and public safety,”  the Manhattan Institute scholar who began popularizing the idea last May, recently wrote in The Wall Street Journal. “Until the urban family is reconstituted, law-abiding residents of high-crime neighborhoods will need the police to maintain public order in the midst of profound social breakdown.”

I remember reading in a book about the LAPD that the sacred credo was, "Give no slack and take no sh#t from anyone.  Confront and command.  Control the streets at all times.  Always be aggressive.  Stop crimes before they happen.  Seek them out.  Shake them down.  Make that arrest.  Never, never, admit that the department has done anything wrong."

But, that was before the Rodney King riots...

Paraphrasing, "To Protect and to Serve: The LAPD's Century of War in the City of Dreams"
 

Colin Parkinson

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How can you acquire evidence on something no one will admit publicly? No police officer is going to go on record saying "We aren't going to patrol there anymore, or we don't get involved anymore." I suspect it will take much longer to acquire useful data to debunk or prove the effect.
 

mariomike

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Another thing I remember reading about the so-called “Golden Era” of the LAPD, ( When I used to watch "Adam-12" and "Emergency!" ).

Chief PARKER deployed us heavily in South Central L.A., because "That is where the crime is."  The Valley and West End complained they were paying for protection that was going elsewhere.

The facts may be difficult for the politically correct to comprehend. Blacks were then about 18 percent of the population in L.A., but committing over 65 percent of Part I crimes (Uniform Crime Reporting: murders, robberies, rapes, arson, etc.).  Why?  Sociological problems, education, dna....who knows?  Most victims were fellow blacks, who appreciated and strongly supported LAPD.  The South End was the only segment of L.A. that regularly voted for police pay raises and benefits.  And we gave them the best service we could.  The team preying on gays, being sought by CAMPBELL & HETTINGER, were black.  So, does “Native A.” think they should be stopping whites?

Starting in 1973, affirmative action & consent decrees changed LAPD culture from aggressively pursuing criminals to laying back in police cars, taking careful and lengthy reports, while gangs ran wild in the streets and portions of L.A. were terrorized by thugs.

When I was in the field in the 1960s, our 3,400 policemen (our Civil Service rank) arrested 100,000 more criminals than do today's  10,000 affirmative action wonders.  (Attorney GARY INGEMUNSON in "Warning Bells," Thin Blue Line, July 2005, p. 13---Also L.A. Times of 13 March 1996, pp. B-1 & 3):  A “distressed Mayor Richard Riordan...said it was vexing to learn that LAPD is now making 100,000 fewer arrests, issuing over 200,000 fewer citations, and conducting over 20,000 fewer field interviews per year.”

There is no “nice” way to arrest a dangerous and combative suspect.  Officers today are more concerned about getting burned and labeled as a rogue officer than being aggressive at confronting suspects.  When were you safer, taxpayers, then or now...?

When the community fails to support its police in its proper and reasonable enforcement efforts, the police become demoralized and cease proactive enforcement.  Doing nothing or devoting
inordinate attention to minor incidents and thus being unavailable to handle more serious calls has few consequences.....
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedailymirror/2010/01/the-onion-field-remembered.html

I believe "field interviews" are what "carding" aka "community engagement" is called in Toronto.

I would also add that everything the police and emergency services do is now recorded on cell phones for instant uploading to Youtube.

 

Rifleman62

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In Chicago, during the month of May 2016, there was nearly 400 shootings, of which 66 were fatal as the first post states.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-may-violence-20160601-story.html

Black Lives Matter

Look who is running the city and the State.
 

mariomike

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Rifleman62 said:
In Chicago, during the month of May 2016, there was nearly 400 shootings, of which 66 were fatal as the first post states.

Gorilla Death Receives 54x More Network Coverage Than Chicago Shootings
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2016/06/02/guerilla-death-receives-54x-more-network-coverage-than-chicago-shootings-n2172148
 

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Rifleman62

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Well marionmike, it's not everyday that a Gorilla is shot! >:D
 
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