- Reaction score
U.S. threat assessments in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 got the intent right. The Russians invaded as predicted. But on the capability side, analysts focused on the quantity of troops and firepower being massed on the border. Surely, the outgunned Ukrainians could not withstand the pending Russian onslaught. Kyiv was expected to fall within days.
Threat assessment, as we are regularly reminded, is a function of both capability and intent. Usually the assumption is that capability is easy to discern while intent is difficult. Intent is all about what is in peoples' minds and you can't trust their words.
Capability is usually assessed by counting up the number of weapons in the arsenal and then assuming (THAT word) that bad things could happen IF the enemy can use their version of our equipment as well as we hope we will be able to use our version of our equipment.
But what if all our assessments are coloured by the sum of all our fears?
How do you plan realistically? Should more weight be given to the amorphous, the unknowns?